Risk Assesments and Crying Wolf

The issue with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the US Navy got me thinking about an article I wrote several years ago regarding how little risk Iraq posed to the United States. In summary, Iraq posed little risk to the United States, and if George Bush, and Congress made these decisions based on a risk assessment and had to prove that expenditure dollars would be spent in the areas that posed the highest risk to our country, we wouldn't be in the situation we are now. I am not saying getting rid of a dictator who killed his own people is a bad idea, it was just sold to us in the wrong way, and did not need to risk as many young lives as it has. Now we find ourselves in a similar situation with Iran. Iran definitely poses a threat to its neighboring nations, and they need to determine the risk to their countries, and enact controls and countermeasures to reduce that risk. Going back to the risk assessment for our country, I would argue that Iran poses little threat to our country due to the distance, and our countermeasures - see Jane's directory for current US arsenal. The issue on Tuesday of this week DID pose a real threat to the US ships in the area, and they had every right to turn the boats and the people aboard into shark hors d'oeuvres. I won't comment on whether the event really happened, was staged, or any of that because there are very few people that actually know, and I am not one of them. This now brings us to the point where the President is claiming that Iran is a threat to world peace and everyone needs to realize that. Hmmmm where have we heard this before, and why don't I believe you. I truly hope that Iran is not a threat to the world, and does not take any actions to make itself so, but if they are, it is going to be much harder for us to sell this to the World given our current track record with threat analysis.

Now comes the tie to Information Security.

Solid risk assessment and only remediating and professing the need for money to address high risk issues first ensures our words are heard and respected. Anything else makes us the Boy who cries wolf, and dilutes the message and importance.